3. Population and communities

3.1 This theme focuses on the demographics and households of the population in Vale of Glamorgan, as well as deprivation, access to services and facilities.

Policy context

3.2 Table 3.1 presents the most relevant documents identified in the policy review for the purposes of the RLDP and ISA.

Table 3.1 Plans, policies and strategies reviewed in relation to population and communities

3.3 The key messages emerging from the review are summarised below:

• The RLDP will be required to be in general conformity with Future Wales, which sets out the 20-year spatial framework for land use, providing a context for the provision of new infrastructure/ growth. Future Wales identifies the Vale of Glamorgan as falling within the South East Wales region, the smallest of the four regions by area, including the coastal cities of Cardiff and Newport and the former industrial heartlands of the south Wales valleys. Future Wales highlights the importance for the region's connections with the Mid Wales and South West regions and the West of England region. Promoting accessibility and inter-linkages between these areas, based on an understanding of their roles and functions, will ensure these areas operate as a cohesive whole and do not compete against each other or take strategic decisions in isolation. Supporting the Vale of Glamorgan as an area with essential services and facilities alongside digital infrastructure will have a beneficial impact on the local community.
• National planning policy is set out in PPW, which predominately seeks to ensure planning decisions support all aspects of well-being and deliver new development which is sustainable and provides for the needs of all people and communities
• PPW 11 contains the principles and policies which have a direct relevance to assist communities recover from the Covid 19 pandemic in a positive manner, putting placemaking at the heart of future development. The 'Building Better Places' guide pinpoints the most relevant policy priorities and actions to aid in the recovery, including "creating healthy, thriving active places with a focus on a positive, sustainable future for our communities".
• PPW is supplemented by TANs, which translate Welsh Government's commitment to sustainable development within the planning system so that it can play an appropriate role in moving towards sustainability. The primary objective of PPW is to ensure that the planning system contributes towards the delivery of sustainable development, and contributes positively towards improving the social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being of Wales. This is as required by the Planning (Wales) Act 2015, the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and other key legislation and resultant duties such as the Socio-economic Duty.
• The Welsh Language Standards place a requirement on Local authorities in Wales to produce a local Welsh Language Strategy that sets out how they will promote the use of the Welsh language and increase the number of Welsh speakers in their area. Based around the six themes identified nationally in the Welsh Government's Welsh Language Strategy: 'A living language: a language for living' the Welsh Language Strategy (2017) uses established national criteria but localises the information and targets to support the continuing success of the Welsh language in the Vale of Glamorgan.
• The Placemaking Wales Charter builds on the strengthening focus on placemaking in policy and practice in Wales and aims to provide a common understanding of the range of considerations that go into placemaking. Placemaking is about creating high quality development and public spaces which enhance communities and create healthy spaces.
• The charter outlines the following six placemaking principles that cover the range of considerations that contribute to establishing and maintaining good places:
  ─ People and community: The local community are involved in the development of proposals. The needs, aspirations, health and well-being of all people are considered at the outset. Proposals are shaped to help to meet these needs as well as create, integrate, protect and/or enhance a sense of community and promote equality.
  ─ Movement: Walking, cycling and public transport are prioritised to provide a choice of transport modes and avoid dependence on private motor vehicles. Well designed and safe active travel routes connect to the wider active travel and public transport network and public transport stations and stops are positively integrated.
  ─ Location: Places grow and develop in a way that uses land efficiently, supports and enhances existing places and are well connected. The location of housing, employment and leisure and other facilities are planned to help reduce the need to travel.
  ─ Public realm: Streets and public spaces are well defined, welcoming, safe and inclusive with a distinct identity. They are designed to be robust and adaptable with landscape, green infrastructure and sustainable drainage well integrated. They are well connected to existing places and promote opportunities for social interaction and a range of activities for all people.
  ─ Mix of uses: Places have a range of purposes which provide opportunities for community development, local business growth and access jobs, services and facilities via walking, cycling or public transport. Development density and a mix of uses and tenures helps to support a diverse community and vibrant public realm.
  ─ Identity: The positive, distinctive qualities of existing places are valued and respected. The unique features and opportunities of a location including heritage, culture, language, built and natural physical attributes are identified and responded to.
• The Cardiff Capital Region and City Deal seeks to promote strong, sustainable, and balanced growth throughout the region, committing to a partnership approach to housing and regeneration. The deal aims to encourage investment and create an equal opportunity environment within the ten local authorities and other key partners in its boundaries. The RLDP should set out policies and proposals for the promotion of sustainable growth within the area for the benefit of its resident population.
• Notably, the 21st Century Schools and Colleges programme is a major, long-term, strategic capital investment programme, funded by the Welsh Government and local authorities.
• The adopted Vale of Glamorgan LDP and other local policies and plans regarding socio economic issues broadly address the following objectives:
  ─ To provide the opportunity for people in the Vale of Glamorgan to meet their housing needs.
  ─ To ensure that development within the Vale of Glamorgan uses land effectively and efficiently.
  ─ To reinforce the vitality, viability and attractiveness of the Vale of Glamorgan's town, district, local and neighbourhood shopping centres.
  ─ To reduce the need for Vale of Glamorgan residents to travel to meet their daily needs and enabling them greater access to sustainable forms of transport.
• The Barry Growth Programme (2022) sets out a spatial Masterplan and a 10-year investment plan for Barry. The Programme seeks to identify a range of sustainable regeneration, investment and development opportunities that could be realistically delivered over the next decade in Barry, an area including the town centre, Barry waterfront, the docks and Barry Island, along with Enterprise Zone employment land towards Cardiff Airport – all with a focus on improving equality, prosperity and economic growth potential for all communities in and by implication, around Barry, the Vale of Glamorgan and beyond.
• In 2020, the Council published its Coronavirus Recovery Strategy^[35], which sets out the social, economic and well-being impacts that the pandemic has had on the Vale communities and setting out its key priorities for recovery. This supports the Vale's Corporate Plan 2020 to 2025 and aligns with the Barry Growth Programme. Notably objectives include being 'resilient, innovative and responsive to the needs of our communities' and 'ensuring people are safe at home and in the community'.

Baseline summary

Population overview

3.4 The latest mid-yearestimate for the Vale of Glamorgan relates to 2020 which was released in June2021 and estimated the population being 135,295 people. This results in a population density of 408.6 people per sq.km in comparison to 383 people per sq.km at the start of the plan period in 2011. This makes the Vale of Glamorgan the 11th most populated local authority, and the 9th most dense local authority area in Wales.^[36]

3.5 There has been positive population growth in the Vale of Glamorgan each year since 2002, other than 2017. In the last five years, the population has grown by 5.4% or 7,315 people; a higher rate of growth than the change in the overall Welsh population in this period.^[37]

3.6 The population make-up of the Vale of Glamorgan reflects national (Wales) trends:

• In the Vale of Glamorgan, in 2020 it was estimated that most of the population; 60% (81,540) were aged 16-64. This compares to 61% for Wales as a whole.
• It was estimated that 19% (24,917) of the Vale of Glamorgan's population were aged 0-15. This compared to 18% for Wales as a whole.
• It was estimated that 21% (28,838) of the Vale of Glamorgan's population were aged 65 and over. This compares to 21% for Wales as a whole.

3.7 Like much of the country, the Vale of Glamorgan is experiencing an aging population. Population projections estimate that by 2036 the population aged 0-15 and 16-64 will decrease. The Vale of Glamorgan's Older People's Strategy (2013)^[38] supports the objectives of the Welsh Government's Strategy for Older People, Phase 3 of which covers the period 2013 to 2023.

3.8 Table 3.2 shows the growth of the population between 2015 and 2020 by age range. Table 3.2 also shows the significant increase in the older population in the Vale since 2015.

Table 3.2 Vale of Glamorgan population growth 2015 - 2020^[39]

3.9 In terms of the population's gender and age profile:^[40]

Figure 3.1 population projections by local authority and year^[44]

3.12 Despite having the fifth lowest usual resident population in 2018, Table 3.3 below shows that the Vale is predicted to have the second fastest growing population in the South East behind Newport. This indicates that the population is growing at a comparatively high rate for its size, which may be due to a combination of an aging population and inward migration.

Table 3.3: Population projections^[45]

Population migration patterns

3.13 Much of the Vale of Glamorgan's population change in the last five years may be attributed to population migration patterns.^[46] Net migration refers to the estimated inward and outward population occurring between local authorities in the United Kingdom.

3.14 In the Vale of Glamorgan, there has been positive net migration in the last five years (with negative net migration between 2014-15, reflecting the fall in estimated population between mid-2014 and mid-2015). Between 2019-20 positive net migration was estimated to be 1,618 people, with, 5,506 people moving into the Vale of Glamorgan and 3,888 moving out of the Vale of Glamorgan.

Main settlements

3.15 The Vale of Glamorgan is Wales' most southerly Unitary Authority, lying west of Cardiff between the M4 and the Severn Estuary and covering 33,097 hectares, of which approximately 85% (28,132 hectares) is agricultural land (further detail in Chapter 8).

3.16 Comprising a mix of rural and urban environments, the Vale has a number of distinct towns and villages, divided into the three 'Community Areas' - Barry, Eastern Vale and Western Vale.^[47] These community areas include the four town centres of the Vale of Glamorgan: Barry, Penarth (Eastern Vale), Llantwit Major (Western Vale) and Cowbridge (Western Vale).

3.17 In 2020 it was estimated that 55,069 people or 41% of the Vale of Glamorgan's population lived in Barry, with 41,747, or 31% of the Vale of Glamorgan's population lived in the Western Vale and 38,479, or 28% of the Vale of Glamorgan's population lived in the Eastern Vale. It is estimated that Barry has the highest share of the Vale of Glamorgan's population aged 0-15 at 44%, the highest share of the population aged 16-64 at 42%; while the Western Vale has the highest share of the population ages 65 and over at 34%.^[48]

3.18 Barry is the administrative centre of the Vale of Glamorgan and was identified as a 'key settlement' in the (now superseded) Wales Spatial Plan, in recognition of its role in the success of the South East Wales Capital Region. In 2010, the Welsh Government designated Barry as a Regeneration Area, supporting the development of Barry as an attractive place to live; and supporting the development of Barry Island as a destination primarily for activity-based day trips.^[49]

3.19 Although the historic towns 'of Cowbridge, Penarth and Llantwit Major are all very different in character, they have similar roles. For example, they all have significant resident populations, good public transport provision, local employment opportunities, established town centres and a wide range of cultural, educational and community services and facilities. It is for these reasons, that the existing adopted LDP identifies these as 'Service Centre Settlements' in recognition of their role in serving the daily needs of their local residents and acting as important hubs for those living in nearby smaller settlements.^[50] The location of the main settlements in the context of the RLDP area can be seen in Figure 3.4 later in this Chapter. As set out in the adopted LDP, 'primary' settlements in the Vale include: Dinas Powys, Llandough (Penarth), Rhoose, St. Athan, Sully and Wenvoe.^[51]

3.20 Notwithstanding St. Athan's strategic economic role (see Chapter 2 above), the primary settlements of Dinas Powys, Llandough (Penarth), Rhoose, Sully, St. Athan and Wenvoe play an important role in providing a level of housing growth, in addition to some key local services and facilities. The primary settlements complement the role of the service centre settlements in that they provide for the needs of residents and cater for the needs of the surrounding wider rural areas. They offer several key services and facilities, which are vital to their role as sustainable communities, as they reduce the need to travel to Barry or the service centre settlements for day-to-day needs. These facilities include primary schools, small convenience shops, food and drink outlets, some small-scale employment provision and regular public transport.^[52]

3.21 The adopted LDP also identifies 'Minor Rural Settlements' including: Aberthin, Bonvilston, Colwinston, Corntown, Culverhouse Cross, East Aberthaw, Ewenny, Fferm Goch, Graig Penllyn, Llancarfan, Llandow, Llanmaes, Llysworney, Ogmore by Sea, Pendoylan, Penllyn, Peterston Super Ely, Sigingstone, Southerndown, St Brides Major, St Nicholas, Treoes, Wick and Ystradowen. For these settlements, the adopted LDP has provided for moderate growth to help meet local housing need and to support existing local services.

Housing

Household estimates

3.22 Household estimates for Wales show that there were an estimated 58,878 households in the Vale of Glamorgan in 2020. This is the 12th highest number of estimated households by Local Authorities in Wales.

3.23 Data from 1991 to 2020 shows that the largest growth in household size in the Vale of Glamorgan can be observed in '1 person' households. It was estimated that there were 18,467 '1 person' households in the Vale of Glamorgan in 2020.

3.24 The growth in '1 person' households has been accompanied by growth in '2 person (no children)' households. It was estimated that there were 18,157 '2 person (no children)' households in the Vale of Glamorgan in 2020. Other household sizes in the Vale of Glamorgan have remained consistent.^[53]

Housing delivery

3.25 In terms of housing delivery, monitoring data indicates that between 1st April 2011 and 1st April 2022, the LDP has delivered 5,688 dwellings which equates to an annual average delivery of 517 dwellings per annum as opposed to 630.66.^[54] This is 18% below the 2022 cumulative dwelling target of 6,937.

3.26 Figure 3.2 below illustrates the growth in housing delivery within the Vale of Glamorgan since 2011, highlighting a steady annual increase in housing completions within the authority reflecting the national economic recovery along with the availability of deliverable housing land within the authority. For the years 2016-17, 2017-18, 2019-20 and 2020-21 the table illustrates that housing dwelling completions have exceeded the annual average requirement.

Figure 3.2 Housing delivery within the Vale of Glamorgan

3.27 Figure 3.2 also illustrates that over next five years completions are anticipated to fall below the average requirement in years 2021 to 2023 before increasing above the annual average requirement in the last three years of the plan.

3.28 It is considered that despite the low development rates within the early part of the Plan period, the Council has made good progress towards its delivery of the identified housing provision.

Tenure

3.29 Between the 2001 and 2011 Census, reflecting changes across all Local Authority areas across Wales, tenure in the Vale of Glamorgan has seen falls in the percentage of properties owned with a mortgage and a growth in those privately rented.^[55] In 2001, most respondents, 44.9% owned with a mortgage, this was also the highest percentage in Wales; in 2011 this had fallen to 36.8%. The percentage of respondents who were privately rented grew from 6.4% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2011.

Affordable housing

The Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) (2022) shows an affordable housing need across the Vale of Glamorgan, comprising 76% social rented accommodation, 18% intermediate rented housing, and 7% low-cost home ownership. The headline annual need for affordable housing in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2021 to 2026 is1205 units per annum, comprising:

• 915 units of social rented accommodation.
• 211 units of intermediate rented housing; and
• 79 units of low-cost home ownership^[56].

3.30 The need for general needs social rented accommodation remains at its highest in the Barry and Penarth and Llandough housing market areas, followed by the urban settlements along the south of the county boundary. There are also pockets of moderate need in the rural north, especially around principal settlements. The LHMA further highlights that all areas demonstrate a deficit of general needs social housing of some level.^[57]

3.31 The LHMA identifies that the greatest need is for smaller one and two bedroom properties and accommodation for older people (over 65), with demand greatest amongst single person and couples without children.

House prices

3.32 The latest HM Land Registry data (National Statistics UK House Price Index Wales: March 2021 (Published 19th May 2021) indicates that house prices in Wales grew by 3.1% since February 2021 with the average house price in Wales now being £185,431, which is an annual change of 11%.

3.33 In the Vale of Glamorgan, on average, house prices similarly rose by 3% in the year to February 2021. The average house price in the Vale now stands at £238,745 compared to £231,874 for February 2020. In comparison to other Welsh authorities, as shown in Figure 3.3, Vale of Glamorgan is one of the more affluent areas, along with other South East authorities Cardiff, Newport and Monmouthshire. Rhondda, Merthyr Tydfil and Neath Port Talbot can be seen shaded blue, with the lowest average house prices in Wales.

Figure 3.3 Average house prices by Local Authority in Wales^[58]

Household projections

3.34 According to 2018 based national household projections for Wales, the number of households in the Vale of Glamorgan will continue to grow year on year. Over the next ten years to 2028, it is projected that the number of households in the Vale of Glamorgan will grow from 57,230 to 61,030.^[59] By 2043 it is projected that the number of households in the Vale of Glamorgan will grow to 62,832.

3.35 Household projections vary for different household types, most household types show year on year growth in the number of households.

3.36 Although household projections show a year-on-year growth in the numbers of households, projections for average household size show a year-on-year decrease. Over the next ten years to 2028, it is projected that the average household size will decrease from 2.27 to 2.21.^[60]

Crime

3.37 The crime rate in the Vale of Glamorgan has risen over the last few years, as shown in Table 3.4.^[61] In the last year there has been a large rise in anti-social behaviour recorded, with a correlation between increases and the introduction of coronavirus restrictions. Of concern is the rise in domestic abuse and Multi-Agency Risk Assessment (MARAC) conferences that have been undertaken throughout 2020 and 2021. There is a correlation also between experiences of crime and those areas of the Vale of Glamorgan measured as most deprived against the WIMD 2019 Community Safety Domain (see Chapter 5 for further detail).

Table 3.4 Vale of Glamorgan – All Crime 2015 – 2021 (April – March)^[62]

3.38 While crime of any nature is of concern, the levels of crime experienced within the Vale of Glamorgan are relatively low and the Vale of Glamorgan remains a generally safe place in which to live and work. 76% of people report feeling safe in their local area, higher than the Welsh average of 73%.^[63]

Figure 3.4 Green Wedge and Settlement Boundaries 

Access to services

3.43 There are issues for some areas of the Vale of Glamorgan in accessing services, with areas of the Western Vale recording high return travel times to key services and poor internet connections.^[66] Accessibility, including access to health services, is discussed further in Chapter 4.

3.44 In terms of community facilities, the Vale of Glamorgan Council owns 22 Community Centres (shown in Figure 3.5), which are expertly managed daily by volunteers via a Community Association^[67]. The Vale is also home to several other facilities, which fall under the following categories:

• Coast and countryside.
• Libraries.
• Parks and Gardens.
• Arts and Culture; and
• Sports and Play.

Figure 3.5 Council Managed Community facilities in the Vale of Glamorgan

Future baseline

3.45 The Vale is predicted to be the second fastest growing population in South East Wales, and it is anticipated that the predicted increase in the population could place pressure on existing communities, services and facilities. Further, unplanned development may have wider implications in terms of delivering the right mix of housing types, tenures and sizes in suitably connected places, particularly considering the comparatively older, and ageing population present. Continued development of housing types and tenures of market preference may introduce or exacerbate a housing imbalance and fail to meet any local needs for smaller homes to downsize into, or more affordable homes to serve younger residents' needs. This need is reflected through the latest LHMA (2022).             

3.46 The RLDP offers the opportunity to promote social interaction, including opportunities for meetings between people who might not otherwise encounter each other - for example through mixed-use developments, strong neighbourhood centres, street layouts that allow for easy pedestrian and cycle connections within and between neighbourhoods, and active street frontages.

3.47 Over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, homeworking has become a more prevalent trend, and this is likely to alter the commuting patterns and access trends of residents into the future. Whilst uncertainty remains, the RLDP provides opportunities to guide development which accommodates for changing working patterns and lifestyles, and places greater emphasis on access to local services, facilities and employment options and strategic connectivity.

Key issues

3.48 The context review and baseline information informed the identification of several key issues (problems and opportunities):

• There has been positive population growth in the Vale of Glamorgan each year since 2002 (other than 2017), with the 65+ age group notably increasing by 9.8% between 2015 and 2020 and expected to rise further by 2030
• There is notable growth projected for the population aged 65-84 and 85 and over. Between 2019 and 2039 it is estimated that the population aged 65-84 will grow by 5,266 people and the population aged 85 and over will grow by 2,904 people. This suggests the Vale has an ageing population and there needs to be consideration of their specific needs in areas such as housing, health and care provision, but also to recognise the positive contribution of the older people in the community.
• High property prices contribute to an increase in the number of residents unable to enter the private property market. Household projections show a year-on-year growth in the numbers of households, while projections for average household size show a year-on-year decrease. The RLDP could seek to enhance policy provisions that deliver the right mix of housing types, tenures, and sizes according to local needs, in suitably connected places, as well as affordable housing for future residents.
• The Vale is made up of distinct rural and urban settlements; towns and villages divided into three community areas - Barry, Eastern Vale and Western Vale. The Vale's four town centres are Barry, Penarth (Eastern Vale), Llantwit Major (Western Vale) an Cowbridge (Western Vale). Barry has the highest share of the Vale of Glamorgan's population and has been designated as a regeneration area.
• There has been positive net migration in the last five years, with Table 3.3 above showing that the population of the Vale is growing at a comparatively high rate for its size.
• The Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) (2022) shows an affordable housing need across the Vale of Glamorgan, comprising 76% social rented accommodation, 18% intermediate rented housing, and 7% low-cost home ownership.^[68] The need for general social rented accommodation remains at its highest in the Barry and Penarth and Llandough housing market areas, although there are varying levels of affordable housing need across the authority
• The adopted LDP currently identifies seven Green Wedges which retain the integrity and identity of key settlements. It is important that this policy is taken forward within the RLDP to support strategic, sustainable growth throughout the Vale in the long term. Access to services is a key issue, and the sustainable location of new development will be essential in ensuring residents can meet their day-to-day needs via sustainable modes of transport.

ISA objectives

3.49 Considering the key issues discussed above, it is proposed that the ISA should include the following objective and assessment questions: