Employment rates

2.21 The headline Labour Market Overview (LMO) estimates are published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). As shown in Figure 2.4 below, the latest LMO indicates that the employment rate in Wales was 74.1% of those aged 16-64 between January and March 2022. In comparison, the UK employment rate was 75.7% during the same period.

2.22 Figure 2.4 shows that employment rates in Wales have dropped since 2018, with a considerable decrease in 2020, which is likely to be a result of the coronavirus pandemic. However, figures for 2022 show an increase since 2020, which matches the general trend seen for the UK overall.

Figure 2.4 Employment Rate (percentage of population age 16-64)^[16]

2.23 While the ONS data prepared by 'nomis' is not directly comparable with the LFS data above, the most recent nomis data for the Vale of Glamorgan (January 2020 – December 2020) shows a gradual decrease in employment rates. 77.6% (60,900) of the Vale of Glamorgan population are identified as being economically active, which is greater than the overall Wales figure of 75.7%.^[17]

2.24 In terms of unemployment, Figure 2.5 below shows unemployment rate by economic region compared to the overall rate for Wales. Before the end of 2019, the unemployment rate remained consistently higher in South East Wales than the other regions. In 2021, the unemployment rate increased in all three economic regions in Wales compared with the previous year, although South East Wales had the smallest increase, up by 7.4%. Also in 2021, Mid and South West Wales had a higher unemployment rate than South East Wales, and North Wales maintains the lowest unemployment rate. The overall trend for Wales and the three economic regions is a decrease in unemployment over the past four years.

Figure 2.5 Unemployment rate by economic region (percentage of economically inactive population)^[18]

2.25 As with employment rates, the percentage of the economically inactive people within the Vale of Glamorgan mirrors the declining national picture. Nomis data indicates that in March 2021 5.4%, (4,310 people) in the Vale of Glamorgan were unemployed, compared to the Welsh average of 5.9% and the UK average of 6.5%.^[19]

2.26 The percentage of people who are self-employed in the Vale of Glamorgan has fluctuated over the last 15 years, with considerable falls following the recession starting in 2007. In December 2020, the percentage of people who were self-employed in the Vale of Glamorgan was 8.4%, below both the Welsh average of 9.3% and the Great Britain average of 9.9%.^[20]

Covid-19

2.27 The Wales Centre for Public Policy estimate that 42% of the UK's economy has been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. While the economic impact of the pandemic has hit people across the UK there are indications that the labour market shocks associated with the pandemic have been felt more by young people and the lowest paid. Five LSOAs in the Vale of Glamorgan are ranked in the top10% most deprived (a rank of 191 or below) LSOAs in Wales according to the Income Domain; all are in Barry.^[21] Deprivation levels throughout the Vale are discussed further in Chapter 5.

2.28 During the pandemic, within three months the employment rate in the Vale of Glamorgan fell by 1.8% (March 2020 from December 2019). Although all industry sectors have been affected by the pandemic, the Service Sector, in particular 'customer facing' services such as Accommodation and Food Services activities, have been particularly affected.^[22]

2.29 StatsWales have indicated a large increase in the benefit claimant count rate in Wales since February 2020. Whilst not everyone claiming these benefits will be unemployed, there was an 87.7% increase of people claiming Universal Credit in early March 2021 compared to February 2020.^[23]

Broadband

2.30 As evidenced by the pandemic, availability and access to good internet coverage has become increasingly important to our daily lives. The take up of high-speed broadband infrastructure in Vale of Glamorgan is the highest in Wales.^[24]

2.31 At the height of the pandemic, it was estimated that as many as 40% of people were working from home.^[25] Data from WIMD 2019 provides an insight into the quality of broadband availability across the Vale of Glamorgan. LSOAs in towns such as Barry, Penarth and Cowbridge show high availability of broadband at 30mbs and LSOAs in more rural areas show poorer availability. It is estimated that 27% of homes in Rhoose, 3 in the Western Vale cannot receive broadband at 30 mb, while it is estimated that 25% of homes in Sully, 2 in the Eastern Vale cannot access broadband at these speeds. The Vale of Glamorgan council is working with the Welsh Government through the 'local broadband fund' to improve internet access in some areas where infrastructure is more difficult to establish.

Education

2.32 The Vale offers access to a range of education facilities, reflecting the diverse nature of the authority. Larger dual-entry Primary schools are seen in more urban areas while relatively small schools are often located in more rural areas (see Figure 2.6). Secondary schools are predominately located in major towns, while one Welsh medium middle school (ages 3-19) is in Barry. There is one Local Authority maintained Special School which is in Penarth.

2.33 There are three independent schools located in the Vale of Glamorgan, including the United World College of the Atlantic (Atlantic College) located in St Donats. There is one further education institution, Cardiff and Vale College in the county, with campuses located in Barry and the Cardiff Airport and Bro Tathan Enterprise Zone.

2.34 The location of schools in and near the Vale are shown below in Figure 2.6. Schools are focussed near the Vale's urban centres, with less provision in rural areas. Vale of Glamorgan residents also have reasonable access to schools in neighbouring local authority areas. Figure 2.6 shows an abundance of schools in Bridgend to the west of the Vale, and Cardiff to the east. Comparatively, there are relatively few schools in Rhondda Cynon Taf to the north.

2.35 Specifically, within the Vale, school provision includes:

• Two Local Authority maintained Nursery Schools.
• 44 Local Authority maintained Primary Schools (38 English Medium / 6 Welsh Medium).
• One Local Authority maintained Welsh Medium middle school (ages 3 to 19).
• Seven Local Authority maintained Secondary Schools; and
• One Local Authority maintained Special School.

Figure 2.6 Schools within and adjoining Vale of Glamorgan

2.36 In terms of further education, several institutions are within one hour drive time of the Vale as follows:

• Universities:
  ─ Cardiff University.
  ─ Cardiff Metropolitan University.
  ─ Swansea University; and
  ─ University of South Wales.
• Colleges
  ─ Bridgend College.
  ─ Cardiff & Vale College.
  ─ Coleg Y Cymoedd.
  ─ Gower College Swansea.
  ─ Neath Port Talbot College; and
  ─ UWC Atlantic College, St Donats.

2.37 Relevant headline findings in the Vale of Glamorgan Well-being Assessment (2021) include:

• The Vale of Glamorgan has one of the highest levels of people qualified to NVQ level 4 and above in Wales; although differences exist across the Vale of Glamorgan with LSOAs in Barry recording a higher proportion of people aged 16-64 with no qualifications than LSOAs in the Eastern and Western Vale.
• Across all years of apprenticeships started, the majority of apprenticeships have been in the Health Care and Public Services Sector, with Health and Social Care and Management and Professional the next largest sectors.
• There is an evident split in apprenticeships started by gender and sector. Females make-up the majority of Healthcare and Public Services and Health and Social Care Apprenticeships started in the Vale of Glamorgan. For males, the sectors with the largest number of apprenticeships started are Engineering, Construction, Management and Professional and Management sectors.
• 17% of employers in South East Wales either had apprenticeships or currently offered apprenticeships. Of these employers offering apprenticeships, 72% that had recruited people specifically as apprentices in the last three years had retained at least one of their apprentices after their apprenticeship had finished.

Retail

2.38 The national retail sector continues to experience difficult times. Many well-known high street retailers have gone into administration and many others have scaled back their presence on the high street and changed their emphasis to favour digital sales platforms. Subsequently, there has been a continued decrease in retail floorspace within the authority's town and district centres which represents a 5.05% reduction since 2017.

2.39 Table 2.3 below shows the general trend seen of increasing vacancy rates, particularly in the Vale's town centres. Notably, vacancy rates within Barry and Llantwit Major have dropped since 2011, while rates within Penarth and Cowbridge have increased. Table 2.3 shows the highest average vacancy rate for the Vale of Glamorgan was recorded last in 2020. The survey for this period was undertaken in August 2020 during Covid-19 lockdown restrictions which had a detrimental impact upon the vibrancy, vitality and attractiveness of retail centres. However, in the most recent retail survey undertaken in June 2021 vacancy rates in all centres have dropped from the previous year reducing the average vacancy rate to 6.96%.

2.40 Vacancy rates overall for the Vale have decreased slightly since 2011, while overall vacancy rates in Wales and the UK have increased.

2.41 Table 2.3 further shows that the vacancy rate for the UK had risen to 14.1% in 2021, whilst the vacancy rate for Wales is 19.2% (1 in every 7 shops is vacant in Wales). Comparatively, the Vale of Glamorgan vacancy data shows the retail centres within the Vale of Glamorgan have begun to recover from the impact of lockdown restrictions in Wales.

2.42 However, there have been rises in other commercial floorspace such as leisure and office floorspace, demonstrating that town and district retail centres are diversifying from the traditional A1 retail uses in part as a response to changing shopping habits. This is also reflective of the changes made to national planning policy which also promote retail and commercial centres as hubs for social and economic activity and the focal point for a diverse range of services which support the needs of local communities.

Table 2.3 Vacancy rates in the Vale of Glamorgan^[26]

Tourism

2.43 Located within the most populated area of Wales and in close proximity to Cardiff, the Vale of Glamorgan is well situated in terms of its catchment area for both day visitors and also as a base for visitors wishing to explore South Wales.

2.44 The Vale has a range of attractions for tourists that utilise the natural environment to improve the area's economic well-being. This includes the Glamorgan Heritage Coast, the Wales Coast Path and well-established seaside resorts; attractive countryside and country parks; unique historic features; several outdoor pursuit activities; and a well-established network of walking routes.

2.45 Barry Island seafront and Whitmore Bay are recognised as one of the main tourist destinations within the Vale of Glamorgan. The resort is well known throughout the South Wales Valleys, South West England and the West Midlands from which historically a high proportion of visitors were drawn. The resort's main attractions include the beach, Barry Island Pleasure Park, other smaller attractions and numerous amusements, cafes and bars. Despite having to face major market changes and ever increasing demands the area still attracts an estimated 424,000 visitors with and economic value of £17.m^[27]

2.46 The economic contribution of the tourism sector has been growing year on year in Vale of Glamorgan; however, in 2020 data suggests the economic impact of the sector had fallen by 45.1% (see Table 2.4). This has coincided with a 45.3% fall in the number of full-time equivalent jobs employed in the sector. It also shows the total day visitors saw a decrease of 68% from 2019 to 2020 (an approximate loss of 1.89 million visitors).^[28] This widespread significant negative trend seen in 2020 from 2019 is accredited to the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent closure of businesses and intermittent lockdowns.^[29]

2.47 As shown in Table 2.4, for all indicators, data for 2020 does not reflect trends from previous years, which showed a continual increase in visitor numbers, visitor days, employment and overall economic impact from 2013 – 2019. It is considered that as the Vale recovers from the pandemic, trends will increase to meet and exceed growth seen pre-pandemic.

Table 2.4 Vale of Glamorgan tourism indicators (percentage change 2009 to 2020) ^[30]

Regeneration of Barry

2.48 The town of Barry continues to be transformed through major regeneration projects in partnership with the Vale of Glamorgan Council. Historic landmark buildings are being brought back into successful commercial use, alongside new investment in the seafront and waterfront areas of the town.^[31]

2.49 The comprehensive regeneration of the 100-acre waterfront site has delivered a new road link to Barry Island, connecting this tourism hotspot with the development. The regeneration of the Waterfront has so far seen the development of around 1600 new homes alongside private investment in a new hotel, retail leisure and commercial ventures.^[32] Agriculture

2.50 The Agricultural and Food sector is not only important economically in Wales, but also culturally; this is especially true in the Vale of Glamorgan. It is anticipated that sheep farming, which along with cattle farming is the dominant farming type in the Vale of Glamorgan, may become less economically viable due to the changes in market access and public funding restrictions.^[33]

2.51 As of 2019, 700 people in the Vale of Glamorgan were employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. This only represents 1.6% of the working population (42,800 people)^[34].

Future baseline

2.52 Certain sectors are more susceptible to the effects of unemployment in the Vale, including the manufacturing and service sectors. Overall predictions for 2040 indicate that employment rates in the authority will drop by approximately 6%. This has the potential to be exacerbated by infrastructure that is poorly connected to key service centres and fails to offer increased opportunities for employment overall.

2.53 While the number of jobs available in the Vale of Glamorgan has remained largely consistent over the last decade, the Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on the need for employment land and premises. Town and district retail centres are diversifying from the traditional A1 retail uses in part as a response to changing shopping habits. This is reflective of the changes made to national planning policy which also promote retail and commercial centres as hubs for social and economic activity and the focal point for a diverse range of services which support the needs of local communities. The increase in non-retail uses in all retail centres reflects their changing role nationally and is likely to be an ongoing trend.

2.54 The Welsh Government's commitment for encouraging home and distance working to continue post pandemic provides opportunities for employment within rural and semi rural locations and potential increased demand for flexible work spaces within urban settlements.

2.55 Strategically, Cardiff Airport and Bro Tathan Enterprise Zone will assist in the delivery of significant aviation related economic growth not only in the Vale of Glamorgan but also in the wider Cardiff Capital Region. The City Deal presents significant opportunities to improve economic well-being across the region. The South Wales Metro development (discussed in Chapter 6) specifically has the potential to bring widespread changes to the local and regional economy that could be realised over a relatively short timeframe. The region's assets are its connections with the Mid Wales and South West Wales regions and the West of England region.

Key issues

2.56 The context review and baseline information informed the identification of several key issues (problems and opportunities):

• The Vale's location within the Cardiff Capital City Region gives it access to an investment programme of £1.2 billion, including the delivery of the South Wales Metro which will improve connectivity throughout the region.
• The Vale of Glamorgan is identified within Southeast Wales Growth Area, future growth shall need to consider how the needs of the community are aligned with sustainable development and climate change objectives.
• The employment rate in the Vale of Glamorgan has been consistently above that of the Welsh employment rate, and broadly in-line with the GB employment rate. However, high levels of unemployment exist in the county borough, in addition to low levels of income and educational deprivation, notably in certain areas within Barry.
• Cardiff Airport and Bro Tathan Enterprise Zone include 550 ha of employment space. Future development/ expansion of these areas will deliver significant aviation related economic growth throughout the region, support high quality jobs and training/ education for Vale residents.
• Agile working patterns catalysed by digitalisation and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will need to be reflected in local planning policy.
• Continued rise in leisure and office floorspace, with town and district retail centres diversifying from the traditional A1 retail uses in part as a response to changing shopping habits. The RLDP will need to consider how policy can accommodate trends in shopping habits and the changing nature of retail and the evolving role of our town, district and local centres.
• Access to broadband varies throughout the Vale; however, it is noted that the Council is working with Welsh Government through the 'local broadband fund' to improve internet access in areas where infrastructure is more difficult to establish. This will be important if the Vale of Glamorgan wishes to capitalise on the economic opportunities created through home and distance working.
• The Vale has a range of attractions for tourists that utilise the natural environment to improve the area's economic well-being. It will be important for the Vale to utilise its assets in a sustainable way to ensure future social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being throughout communities is enhanced and the integrity of the assets maintained and improved.

ISA objectives

2.57 Considering the key issues discussed above, it is proposed that the ISA should include the following objective and assessment questions: