Sylw

1 Ymgynghoriad ar Cynllun Datblygu Lleol Newydd

ID sylw: 5117

Derbyniwyd: 04/03/2026

Respondent ID: 2386

Ymatebydd: Welsh Government (Planning Division)

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The Level of Growth - Homes and Jobs
The Deposit Plan (Policy SP1 & SP6) makes provision for 8,660 homes to deliver a housing requirement of 7,890 new homes (526 p/a) over the plan period 2021-2036, of which a minimum of 3,070 homes will be affordable. The flexibility allowance proposed by the Council is 9.8%. The delivery of new jobs is for 5,388 over the plan period (Policy SP14).

Homes: The 2018 WG Principal Projection results in a requirement of 431 units p/a, or 6,465 units over the plan period. The housing growth proposed in the plan (requirement) is around +1,425 units (22%) above the WG 2018 principal projection, the provision being +2,195 (34%) above. The Council consider the 10 year average housing completions to represent a more realistic level of growth to deliver the key issues the plan is seeking to address. The Council considers that a lower level of growth (2018 projection) is not appropriate because the projections do not take account of any policy decisions and were prepared in advance of the Covid-19 pandemic with implications for migration patterns and fewer jobs proposed.

BP8A (November 2025) considers the latest 2022 Welsh Government population and housing projections, noting they are higher than the 2018 based projections. The projections for the Vale of Glamorgan show significant variation in internal migration in particular which the Council considers should be treated with caution. The projections are trend based and are affected by specific factors that may have occurred within the previous 5 years. The 5 years in question included a period of high housebuilding associated with a newly adopted LDP, as well as the Covid 19 pandemic, where many students returned to home from term-time addresses and re-registered with GPs in the Vale.

Given the fluctuation in recent migration figures, the Council consider longer-term trends are more appropriate, and it is noted that the population change identified in the 10-year migration variant is of a similar level to that proposed under the RLDP projection. In conclusion, for the reasons identified above, despite the updated projections, the Council considers the RLDP housing requirement continues to represent a robust basis to deliver a sustainable and deliverable level of growth over the plan period. The Welsh Government does not object to the scale of housing contained within the plan.

The demographic evidence (February 2023, Edge Analytics) tested 12 growth scenarios comprising: demographic-led, dwelling-led, and employment-led scenarios. The preferred housing requirement is based on a 10-year dwelling-led scenario (526 dpa) that would result in a population growth of 9.7% over the plan period with an annual net in-migration of 1,009 persons. The Council considers this level of housing growth is deliverable with a large proportion met through existing commitments (51%) and a jobs total (4,875 jobs) that broadly aligns with the level of new jobs forecast in the Employment Land Study (5,338 jobs). Moreover, the scale of growth is considered by the Council to be compatible with Future Wales and the role the authority plays within the wider southeast region. With inward migration to the Vale of Glamorgan from Cardiff expected to slow as Cardiff’s strategic sites deliver higher levels of housing and with employment opportunities in the Vale co-located with housing sites, there are further opportunities to reduce the high levels of out-commuting into Cardiff. Overall, this approach is proposed by the Council to deliver a level of growth that is balanced with the emerging Cardiff LDP and wider southeast region. The Welsh Government does not object to the level of growth proposed in the plan.

We note that historic completion rates in the Vale of Glamorgan have fluctuated considerably over recent years. The past 10-year (2011-2021) average completion rate is 526 dwellings p/a. This has been exceeded over the last 5-years (2016-2021) with 698 dwellings constructed p/a. Build rates in recent years are in part attributed to the delivery of the current adopted LDP strategy that has more of a ‘rural settlement' focus, with multiple sites across many settlements being built out. Replicating this approach going forward (10,470 dwellings) would not comply with FW/PPW in terms of sustainable development and transport, potentially adversely impacting on Cardiff’s growth strategy. On this basis, the Council considers that achieving 526 dwellings p/a in the preferred 10-year dwelling-led scenario is sustainable and deliverable and would provide a level of job growth (5,338 jobs) that is balanced with the housing requirement. The Welsh Government does not object to the level of housing proposed in the plan but demonstrating delivery of the key housing sites will be essential.

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