5. SPATIAL STRATEGY AND GROWTH OPTIONS

5.1 The principal purpose of the Preferred Strategy is to set out a clearly the level of growth and its spatial distribution of development within the Vale of Glamorgan to deliver the Vision and Objectives over the plan period.

5.2 The consideration of realistic spatial options is an important part in the preparation of the RLDP. Each spatial option will need to have regard to legislation, national planning policy, local and regional strategies. Furthermore, the Plan must take account of the specific characteristics, assets and issues within the Vale of Glamorgan and seek to guide development in the way that respond to this. The strategy must deliver the Vision and Objectives.

Spatial Strategy Options

5.3 As the Council already has an adopted LDP, the existing LDP Strategy has been assessed alongside three other alternative strategies to determine whether it remains appropriate within the current policy context. The four strategy options that have been considered are as follows:

• Option 1 – Continuation of the adopted LDP Growth Strategy.
• Option 2 – Dispersed Growth.
• Option 3 – Focused Growth.
• Option 4 – Sustainable Transport Oriented Growth.

5.4 The four alternative spatial options are all considered to be realistic but would result in different distributions of growth for housing and other forms of development. An analysis of the four spatial strategy options is contained in the Spatial Options Background Paper. This considers the advantages and disadvantages of each spatial option including the compliance of each spatial option with Future Wales. Each of the strategy options have also been considered as part of the Integrated Sustainability Appraisal.

5.5 There are some key planning policy issues that must be incorporated in whatever strategy option is chosen as they are an integral part of any strategy. These include:

• Utilising previously developed land before greenfield sites in the first instance.
• Addressing climate change through mitigation and adaptation.
• Promoting placemaking principles.
• Promoting sustainable transport and modal shift.
• Maximising opportunities for green infrastructure enhancement.
• Responding to the nature emergency through biodiversity net benefit.

5.6 Following analysis of the options, and the output of the stakeholder engagement sessions, it is considered that the Sustainable Transport Oriented Growth Option is the most appropriate as it best aligns with the policy requirements of Future Wales, Planning Policy Wales and Llwybr Newydd – the Wales Transport Strategy by focusing development in sustainable places that would reduce the need to travel and encourage the use of sustainable transport. This option will consider the capacity of settlements to accommodate development, rather than targeting development primarily to sites of a certain size or position in the settlement hierarchy.

5.7 Following the engagement process, the focus of the strategy has been refined so that it seeks not only to locate sites in places well served by public transport but also targets development in places that reduce the need to travel in the first place through the co-location of housing in places with employment opportunities, services and community facilities. This Sustainable Growth Strategy also responds to the acute need for affordable housing through focusing development in the areas with greater need. The strategy also allows for small scale affordable housing led developments in minor rural settlements where appropriate to respond to the need for affordable housing in communities across the Vale.

5.8 A more detailed explanation of the components of the Sustainable Growth Strategy is set out in the RLDP Preferred Strategy overview section.

Growth Options

5.9 One of the main functions of the RLDP is to ensure that there is sufficient land available within the Vale of Glamorgan to deliver the required future housing and employment requirements over the lifetime of the plan. These requirements depend on the number of people, so the future population level for which provision must be made is a key consideration of the plan.

5.10 In preparing the RLDP, the Council is required to consider a range of population growth scenarios to assist in the identification of the level of housing and employment growth that will be provided over the plan period. The Council therefore commissioned Edge Analytics to produce a technical paper (Vale of Glamorgan Demographic Evidence February 2023) to provide a range of population, housing, and employment growth evidence to inform the emerging RLDP. The report builds on the Welsh Government household and population projections alongside demographic, dwelling led and employment led scenarios.

5.11 To compliment the demographic evidence, the Council commissioned an Employment Land Study (ELS, October 2022) to identify the employment land requirements for the Vale. In line with Welsh Government guidance, the ELS considered several trend-based scenarios to identify need over the lifetime of the plan and identified the employment land required for each option. The ELS recommended that the Council adopt employment land provision based upon historic take up, requiring the provision of 67.80ha of land with the capacity to support 5,338 jobs over the plan period.

5.12 Table 1 summarises the 12 growth options considered by the Council and includes the housing and growth requirements arising from the assumptions within each. A full explanation of the scenarios considered is provided within the Council's Growth Options Background Paper.

Table 1: Growth Options considered by the Council

5.13 For the purposes on engagement with stakeholders, the options were categorised into high, medium and low growth.

• High growth: 550 to 700 dwellings per annum and 400 to 500 new jobs per annum, (PG-5Y and Dwelling-led 5Y scenarios).
• Medium growth: 400 to 550 dwellings per annum and 240 to 350 new jobs per annum (WG-2018, Employment-led ELR (CR 1-1), Dwelling-led 10Y, WG-2018-HIGHPOP, and Employment-led ELR scenarios).
• Low growth: 150 to 400 dwellings per annum, and a reduction of 125 jobs to an increase of 210 jobs per annum (WG-2014, Employment-led OE, WG-2018-LOWPOP, PG-10Y, PG-Long Term scenarios)

5.14 As explained within the Growth Options Background Paper, a medium level of growth received support through stakeholder engagement and is considered appropriate for the following reasons:

• The number of jobs associated with the population increase would align with the recommendations of the ELS on the number of jobs that would be required, reducing the need for commuting.
• In all options, there would be an increase in the 65+ population, but this level of growth would also stabilise the working age and school age populations over the plan period, unlike the low population growth option, where there would be a decline overall in these age groups. A stable working age and school aged population will support economic growth and will help achieve balanced thriving communities where services and community facilities such as schools remain viable.
• This level of growth would require a moderate level of new dwellings to be allocated, which will increase opportunities to secure affordable housing through Section 106 agreements and deliver additional affordable housing led allocations. This will help address the significant affordable housing need identified across the Vale. Under the low growth options, there would be no need to allocate any additional new housing sites as there is sufficient land within the existing land supply to meet the housing requirements. Opportunities to deliver affordable housing would therefore be limited.
• A medium level of growth would accord with the aspirations for the Vale of Glamorgan within the Future Wales national growth area, which is identified as a focus for strategic economic and housing growth. The level of growth in the plan should be sufficiently ambitious to support this, whilst at the same time being complementary to and not competing with Cardiff, which is identified in Future Wales as the primary settlement within the region. It is considered that low growth, which would mean no new housing or employment allocations, would not accord with what the national growth area is seeking to achieve. Conversely, a level of growth beyond what has realistically been achieved in the past as required in the high growth scenarios could have implications for the level of growth that could be accommodated in other LAs within the Cardiff Capital Region.
• It is considered that there is sufficient capacity within the Vale to accommodate a medium level of growth that can be delivered in sustainable locations in a manner that affords appropriate protection to the most valuable areas of the natural and built environment.

5.15 In order to respond to the RLDP Objectives, particularly delivering 'Homes for All' and 'Building a Prosperous and Green Economy,' it is considered that the evidence base would support growth towards the higher end of the 'medium' range as this would maximise the potential for affordable housing delivery and best align the proposed working age population increases with employment requirements.

5.16 The Preferred Growth option is the Dwelling-led 10 Year scenario, which is based on the average annual build rate for the first 10 years of the adopted plan (526 dwellings per annum or 7,890 over the plan period). As this option reflects what has been delivered in recent years, it is considered to be realistic and deliverable and suitably ambitious, given the Vale's position within the national growth area.